Worried about what your online orders do to city air? Last mile delivery emissions come from the final trip to your door, and they could rise over 30% by 2030 without action. Electric vehicles, lockers and pooled loads can cut them.
This page sits within the wider topic of green logistics, which looks at how moving goods can do less harm.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected rise in urban delivery emissions by 2030 without action (top 100 cities) | Over 30% |
| More delivery vehicles in inner cities by 2030 | 36% |
| Growth in urban last-mile deliveries by 2030 | 78% |
| Last-mile measures analysed by the World Economic Forum | 24 |
| Emissions cut in the combined scenario | 35% |
| Congestion cut in the combined scenario | 25% |
The figures come from a World Economic Forum report as covered by IPC and Smart Cities Dive in January 2020. They are projections and can change, so check the sources before you rely on them.
Why urban delivery emissions are on track to rise
A World Economic Forum report titled The Future of the Last-Mile Ecosystem warned that urban delivery emissions and traffic congestion are on track to increase by over 30% in the top 100 cities globally by 2030. That is the “do-nothing” path, meaning cities and companies take no extra action. The warning was reported by IPC in January 2020.
Two demand figures sit behind that warning. The report expects 36% more delivery vehicles in inner cities by 2030, and urban last-mile deliveries to increase 78% over the same period, as reported by IPC and Smart Cities Dive.
The Forum’s Head of Mobility, Christoph Wolff, put the cause plainly: consumer demand for the convenience of online shopping and fast delivery is rising rapidly, and companies are struggling to meet it with sustainable delivery options, according to IPC.
Congestion is part of the same problem. Smart Cities Dive reported the report’s view that cities would soon be “severely challenged” by e-commerce-driven delivery traffic, though existing technology and policy fixes can help if they are implemented quickly. That forecast is several years old, so treat it as a projection to check against later data.
What the 24 measures include
The report did not rely on a single fix. It analysed 24 last-mile measures, which Smart Cities Dive split into technology options and changes that need no new technology.
The technology options were:
- Drones
- Robots and unmanned deliveries
- Drop boxes
- Locker systems
- Other ways of consolidating orders
The changes that need no new technology were:
- Increased double-parking enforcement
- Delivery time shifts
- Traffic light interventions
- Road lane changes
According to IPC, the 24 measures, including electric vehicles, droids and parcel lockers, could help reduce emissions and traffic congestion by 30% and delivery cost by 25%, compared with the do-nothing scenario.
What a combined approach could achieve
The Forum judged that the best result comes from a combined scenario that balances carriers’ wish for fewer disruptions and faster deliveries with cities’ wish for lower emissions and less congestion. As reported by Smart Cities Dive, that scenario would include:
- Electric vehicles
- Night deliveries
- Multi-brand parcel lockers
- Dynamic re-routing
- Load pooling
Together, these interventions could reduce emissions by 35%, unit costs by 15% and congestion by 25%, according to the same Smart Cities Dive report.
Two of the five levers have their own guides. Pooling loads is closely related to consolidated shipping, and the vehicle side is covered in a separate look at electric delivery vehicles.
Why cities and carriers have to act together
The Forum argued that carriers and municipalities have different, sometimes competing priorities. Its answer was to build portfolios of solutions that, combined, improve congestion and reduce emissions while also lowering the unit cost of deliveries, as Smart Cities Dive described it.
For the fastest results, the report advocated a collaborative approach in which competing carriers work together to consolidate the last mile, rather than leaning on third parties to orchestrate it. The same article says four key interventions were available at the time apart from night deliveries, which could be implemented in one to three years with private-public collaboration.
How to read these numbers
The two news reports describe the benefits differently, and the gap is worth understanding. IPC reports a 30% cut in emissions and congestion from the 24 measures, while Smart Cities Dive reports a 35% emissions cut, a 15% unit cost cut and a 25% congestion cut for the combined scenario.
Both are modelled outcomes compared with a do-nothing baseline, not measured results from real streets. They also describe a forecast made in January 2020 for the world’s biggest cities, so your own town may look different. When you compare a delivery option, ask which scenario a figure belongs to and what it was measured against.
Frequently asked questions
What are last mile delivery emissions?
Show answer
They are the emissions from the final leg of getting an order to the customer. The World Economic Forum report covered here looked at them in the context of e-commerce deliveries in cities.
How much could urban delivery emissions rise by 2030?
Show answer
The report said they are on track to rise by over 30% in the top 100 cities globally if nothing changes, according to IPC. This is a 2020 projection.
Can the increase be reduced?
Show answer
Yes, on the report’s modelling. The combined scenario of electric vehicles, night deliveries, multi-brand parcel lockers, dynamic re-routing and load pooling could cut emissions by 35%, according to Smart Cities Dive.
Do electric vehicles solve the problem on their own?
Show answer
The report did not present them that way. Electric vehicles were one lever in a package that also covered timing, lockers, routing and pooled loads.
Who is responsible for cutting delivery emissions?
Show answer
The Forum said both cities and companies need to act. It advocated a collaborative approach involving major carriers and cities.
